Monday, April 9, 2012

Pilate Gas

Pilate washed his hands of the whole thing.  He tried for a while to do the right thing. He listened to the facts. He sought a second opinion.  But he quickly found out he was dealing with a bunch of crazies.  Reasoning with them did no good.  The truth did not  matter.  It was just an obstacle to be avoided. He threw up his clean hands in surrender:

"What is truth?"

If Pilate held American political office today I suspect he would quickly make an announcement that he was returning home to spend more time with his family.

Truth is weakness, a liability.  The crazies have taken over.

I hesitate to bring up specifics because I have come to believe it does no good. In fact, it seems to be harmful. Those who want to believe lies will believe lies. They circle the wagons against the arrows of truth and hide in the imagined safety of ignorance.   But, just to continue the discussion: 

"President Obama is at fault for high gasoline prices".  All Republican candidates and talking heads are pumping from the same tank on this one and expect to get a lot of mileage out of it.  There are two options here.  Either they are too stupid to hold positions of authority, or they are willfully lying for personal gain.

The truth is that fluctuation in gasoline prices depends almost entirely on the price of crude oil.  The price of crude oil depends in part on simple supply and demand.  In America, supply is up, and demand is down. So the traditional rules of economics would say that the price of oil should be down.  But, the most significant pressure on oil prices now is the upward pressure on prices created by the  international futures markets.  If more investors believe the price of oil will go up, they will pump more money into futures, and the price will continue to go up, creating a price bubble, regardless of a plentiful supply.  This is happening now.  It is not President Obama's fault.  It is a by-product of a free market.

Another upward pressure on gasoline prices is the decline of the value of the dollar versus other currencies.  Between 2002 and 2008, during the Bush administration's reign,  the dollar lost 40 percent of its value against the Euro. It has held relatively steady since then.  This might be a President's fault, but not President Obama's.

Another upward pressure on oil prices and oil futures is uncertainty regarding the security of oil producing countries, like Iran.  Saber rattling by Republican neo-cons and ill-informed candidates (including, unfortunately, the apparent nominee), as well as by Israel, are the primary sources of international uncertainty about security for Iran's oil production, as well as other middle-eastern oil sources that may suffer collateral damage in a conflict..  President Obama has been a voice of reason rather than a source of blame.

And the price of gasoline is affected by refinery capacity.  There is plenty of oil.  But oil companies are closing American refineries, and not replacing them.  Less capacity for refining oil into gasoline diminishes the supply of gasoline and drives the price up.  One might think that the big oil companies would have used a lot of their billions and billions of dollars of record profits to invest in new, more efficient refineries, especially being the job-creators that they surely must be.  But that would cut into profits, and might bring the price of gasoline down, further cutting into their profits.  So it isn't happening.  That is not President Obama's fault.  It is a product of the free market.

The problem with the truth is that it isn't as easy as a lie.  My amateur attempt at summarizing the reasons for high gasoline prices may have been a bit lengthy and boring, but let me assure you, a real expert would have gone on for pages, maybe even volumes.  

It is much easier and more satisfying to close your eyes and click your heels and say "It is President Obama's fault."

Wonder where I can get a Barabbas bumper sticker?

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3 comments :

  1. Gas prices reached an all-time high of $4.05 in September 2008. I'm sure the Republicans were sweating bullets just before the elections.

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  2. The demand part from the BRICS, and the economic outlook for these developing countries as it relates to speculation is pretty important.

    Oil is an international market.

    Gas is heavily subsidized, so the price at the pump doesn't reflect the true cost.

    Price of oil does not reflect a number of long term externalities stemming from the heavy use of fossil fuels.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/why-more-drilling-wont-lower-gas-prices/2012/03/01/gIQALNBtkR_blog.html

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  3. I had typed a big long response, but I just can't post it. I'll just say: have fun hiding in that wagon-circle you're in. November can't get here soon enough. January 2013 we'll start trying to fix the mess from the last 4 years of the most incompetent president and regime in history.

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